With so many words being poured on the outcome of an event that is, literally, unpredictable, it’s hard to know what to add. But being here, it’s impossible to avoid the deep social anxiety. The fact that the election is “too close to call” is adding to that. The media speculates endlessly about the result and this only feeds the sense that the US is entering a profound – and possibly prolonged – period of uncertainty.

It seems to me that only a clear victory, for one side or the other, can avoid that. Of all the possibilities, this seems the least likely. I still think Harris will squeak to victory, mostly because of the threat to reproductive rights. But an equally plausible scenario is what a Rutgers scholar described to me as Hilary Clinton 2.0.

He argues that Harris did have a momentum moment when she became the candidate, but that this has been squandered by a default to perceived moderate sentiment. From my limited perspective, I agree. Had the Democrats followed the Harris ascension with clearly articulated, redistributive economic reforms, they may not have been scrambling for support, as they are now. If you look at her manifesto in detail, there are actually some measures (e.g. help with childcare costs) that would probably benefit working class people, particularly when compared to Trump’s. But I have very little sense that these messages are getting through. I’ve talked to several people who think they were better off under Trump. I haven’t met, or heard, a single person who thinks voting for Harris will improve their standard of living.

Average personal debt in the US is $100,000, totaling almost $18 trillion. 40 million households live in poverty. Critically, wages have been stagnating for decades. It’s true the Biden administration has overseen a marginal economic improvement. But the odd percentage point here or there doesn’t scratch the surface of most US citizens’ daily struggle to keep their heads above water.

The other day, probably having had too much coffee, I wondered if things would be different if Harris had nominated Bernie Sanders as her running-mate. Of course, that’s a fantasy. But Sanders remains the only national political figure consistently arguing for a fundamental realignment of the US economy. Something like 10% of Trump voters previously supported Sanders. That’s not huge, but would probably be enough to swing the result next Tuesday. But then I realised that the Democratic Party establishment would rather lose to Trump, than win with Sanders.

As with the UK Labour Party, it’s the worn-out appeal of political moderation that is fueling the rise of the far-right. These are not “moderate” times. Environmental collapse is causing unprecedented movements of people, with all the associated social conflict and suffering, including wars. Rightly, most people are horrified by what’s happening in Gaza and the Middle East (another factor that could cost Harris dear). But similar things are happening elsewhere, symptomatic of a system in deep crisis.

That seems particularly true for the US. If the last one was the “American Century”, it’s increasingly clear this one won’t be. The US is an empire in decline. That’s partly what lies behind Trump’s morbid appeal to “Make America Great Again”. Behind the tribalist bi-partisanship at election time, both the Democratic and Republican parties are increasingly riven by factionalism. As one commentator recently pointed out, they’re not really “parties” at all. They’re alliances of different interest groups, battling for position. That’s always been true of political parties to an extent. But it becomes more obvious here, as in other countries, as long-established power regimes begin to fracture and disintegrate (with a very obvious comparison being the UK Tories). A process of recomposition – on both left and right – may have started, but it is far from over.

Which brings us back to next Tuesday. To the degree that what happens in the US still matters to the rest of the world, it would be better if Trump is defeated. For this country, his naked racism can only spell the starkest of warnings if he wins. But whatever the outcome, brace yourself for a very bumpy ride that will continue long beyond November 5th.